A Second G.O.P. By David Brooks. New York Times, January 28, 2013.
Brooks:
On the
surface, Republicans are already doing a good job of beginning to change their
party. Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana gave a speech to the Republican National
Committee calling on Republicans to stop being the stupid party, to stop
insulting the intelligence of the American people.
Representative
Paul Ryan gave a fine speech to the National Review Institute calling for
prudence instead of spasmodic protest. The new senator for Texas, Ted Cruz,
gave a speech to the same gathering saying the Republicans should be focusing
on the least fortunate 47 percent of Americans.
But, so
far, there have been more calls for change than actual evidence of change. In
his speech, for example, Jindal spanked his party for its stale clichés but
then repeated the same Republican themes that have earned his party its 33
percent approval ratings: Government bad. Entrepreneurs good.
In this
reinvention process, Republicans seem to have spent no time talking to people
who didn’t already vote for them.
Change
is hard because people don’t only think on the surface level. Deep down people
have mental maps of reality — embedded sets of assumptions, narratives and
terms that organize thinking. Since Barry Goldwater, the central Republican
narrative has been what you might call the Encroachment Story: the core problem
of American life is that voracious government has been steadily encroaching
upon individuals and local communities. The core American conflict, in this
view, is between Big Government and Personal Freedom.
While
losing the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, the
flaws of this mentality have become apparent. First, if opposing government is
your primary objective, it’s hard to have a positive governing program.
As Bill
Kristol pointed out at the National Review event, the G.O.P. fiercely opposed
the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law but never offered an alternative. The
party opposed Obamacare but never offered a replacement. John Podhoretz of
Commentary added that as soon as Republicans start talking about what kind of
regulations and programs government should promote, they get accused by
colleagues of being Big Government conservatives.
The
next problem with this mentality is that it makes it hard for Republicans to
analyze social and economic problems that don’t flow directly from big
government. For example, we are now at the end of the era in which a rising
tide lifts all boats. Republicans like Mitt Romney can talk about improving the
overall business climate with lower taxes and lighter regulation, but regular voters
sense that that won’t necessarily help them because wages no longer keep pace
with productivity gains.
Americans
are still skeptical of Washington. If you shove a big government program down
their throats they will recoil. But many of their immediate problems flow from
globalization, the turmoil of technological change and social decay, and
they’re looking for a bit of help. Moreover, given all the antigovernment
rhetoric, they will never trust these Republicans to reform cherished programs
like Social Security and Medicare. You can’t be for entitlement reform and
today’s G.O.P., because politically the two will never go together.
Can
current Republicans change their underlying mentality to adapt to these
realities? Intellectual history says no. People almost never change their
underlying narratives or unconscious frameworks. Moreover, in the South and
rural West, where most Republicans are from, the Encroachment Story has deep
historic and psychological roots. Anti-Washington, anti-urban sentiment has
characterized those cultures for decades.
It’s
probably futile to try to change current Republicans. It’s smarter to build a
new wing of the Republican Party, one that can compete in the Northeast, the
mid-Atlantic states, in the upper Midwest and along the West Coast. It’s
smarter to build a new division that is different the way the Westin is
different than the Sheraton.
The
second G.O.P. wouldn’t be based on the Encroachment Story. It would be based on
the idea that America is being hit simultaneously by two crises, which you
might call the Mancur Olson crisis and the Charles Murray crisis.
Olson
argued that nations decline because their aging institutions get bloated and
sclerotic and retard national dynamism. Murray argues that America is coming
apart, dividing into two nations — one with high education levels, stable
families and good opportunities and the other with low education levels,
unstable families and bad opportunities.
The
second G.O.P. would tackle both problems at once. It would be filled with
people who recoiled at President Obama’s second Inaugural Address because of
its excessive faith in centralized power, but who don’t share the absolute
antigovernment story of the current G.O.P.
Would a
coastal and Midwestern G.O.P. sit easily with the Southern and Western one? No,
but majority parties are usually coalitions of the incompatible. This is really
the only chance Republicans have. The question is: Who’s going to build a
second G.O.P.?
David Brooks Fighting GOP “Freedomism” to the Death. By Matt Welch. Reason, January 29, 2013.
The Simpletons: David Brooks, Thomas L. Friedman, and the banal authoritarianism of do-something punditry. By Matt Welch. Reason, December 2011. Also find it here.
David Brooks on Freedomism vs. Rhinoism. Essay in symposium “What Is the Future of Conservatism in
the Wake of the Wake of the 2012 Election.” Commentary January 2013. Full symposium here.
The Republican Glasnost. By David Brooks. New York Times, December 6, 2012.
The Conservative Future. By David Brooks. New York Times, November 19, 2012.
The Party of Work. By David Brooks. New York Times, November 8, 2012.
The Conservative Mind. By David Brooks. New York Times, September 24, 2012.
Party of Strivers. By David Brooks. New York Times, August 30, 2012.
What Republicans Think. By David Brooks. New York Times, June 14, 2012.
Our Age of Anxiety. By Yuval Levin. The Weekly Standard, May 28, 2012. Also find it here.
The Possum Republicans. By David Brooks. New York Times, February 27, 2012.
