U.S. needs to show Egypt some tough love. By Robert Kagan and Michele Dunne. Washington Post, February 20, 2013.
More on Egypt and Morsi here.
Kagan and Dunne:
President
Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry need to pay attention to Egypt — now.
The most populous Arab country, poster child of the Arab Spring, faces a
looming economic crisis and a widespread breakdown in law and order, including
increasingly prevalent crime and rape. Either will cripple Egypt’s faltering
effort to become a stable democracy.
The
Obama administration has treated Egypt primarily as an economic problem and has
urged Cairo to move quickly to satisfy International Monetary Fund (IMF)
demands to qualify for financing. But there is no separating Egypt’s economic
crisis from its political crisis — or from the failures of its current
government. Egypt’s economy is struggling and disorder is rampant primarily
because the country’s leaders the past two years — first the Supreme Council of
the Armed Forces, now President Mohamed Morsi — have failed to build an
inclusive political process. Until they do, no amount of IMF funding will make
a difference.
Although
Morsi won a narrow victory last summer, he has yet to learn what it means to
lead in a democratic society. His Muslim Brotherhood is Egypt’s strongest
political force, but it does not command a majority of public support. It
cannot simply force its will on the nation, especially one still aroused by the
spirit of revolution. Morsi can hardly take on urgent tasks, such as the
cutting of wasteful fuel subsidies and the reformation of a corrupt interior
ministry and police force, when much of the country is against him and ready to
take to the streets at the least provocation.
Under
Morsi’s rule, Egyptian society has become polarized between Islamists and
non-Islamists. Enraging the political opposition late last year, he railroaded through a new constitution that contains inadequate protections for the rights
of women and non-Muslims and leaves open the possibility of Islamic clerical
oversight of legislation. Ignoring protests about the flawed process by which
the constitution was drafted and passed, Morsi is moving ahead to legislative
elections based on an electoral law to which the opposition objects. Meanwhile,
his government has cracked down on journalists, brought spurious charges
against opposition leaders and limited the right to public protests. It is
considering legislation that would constrain the activities of non-governmental
organizations even more than Hosni Mubarak did.
The
increasingly desperate secular opposition parties have formed a “National
Salvation Front,” but under the surface they are divided between those who want
to force Morsi to compromise and those who want to force him from power. Even
though most favor the economic reforms necessary to get an IMF loan, many feel
they must mobilize street protests against any Morsi action.
The
result is that, with Egypt at the edge of bankruptcy — it has enough reserves
to pay for only three more months of food and fuel imports — the government and
the opposition are locked in a game of chicken. The economy is sinking,
political conflict is rising and the security situation is deteriorating.
Washington’s
response to this crisis has largely been business as usual. Just as the United
States once clung to Mubarak, the Obama administration has hewed closely to
Morsi, offering a visit to Washington and continuing to deliver the annual $1.3 billion
in military assistance —
including a recent shipment of F-16 aircraft. The administration’s response to
Morsi’s majoritarian bullying has been muted. Egypt’s opposition and
nonpartisan human rights groups believe, understandably, that Washington has
resumed ignoring undemocratic practices so long as the Egyptian government
protects U.S. strategic interests. Outside of opening new contacts with the
ruling Muslim Brotherhood, there has been no fundamental reassessment of U.S.
policy toward Egypt since Mubarak’s removal in 2011. Our military and economic
aid packages remain the same — except that nearly all democracy and
civil-society assistance has been cut off.
It’s
time for a new approach. Both the administration and Congress need to fully
review military and economic assistance to Egypt. What does the Egyptian army
need to bring security to the Sinai? Probably not F-16s. What conditions should
Congress place on aid? Previous packages have appropriately been conditioned on
progress toward democracy, but the administration has insisted on a national
security waiver and has exercised it to provide the aid regardless of Egypt’s
behavior. Perhaps Congress should not permit such a waiver in the next aid
bill.
As for
Morsi’s planned trip to Washington, it would be better to hold that invitation
until he demonstrates a sincere commitment to working with all of Egyptian
society and allowing genuine freedom to all citizens. That means supporting a
law that meets international standards on regulating civil society, allowing
watchdog organizations to operate freely and finally resolving the
controversial status of foreign and foreign-funded NGOs. It means ending the
persecution of journalists and opposition figures, committing to reform the
police and hold them accountable, and building a consensus on such critical
matters as the constitution and electoral law.
The
United States made a strategic error for years by coddling Mubarak, and his
refusal to carry out reforms produced the revolution of Tahrir Square. We
repeat the error by coddling Morsi at this critical moment. The United States
needs to use all its options — military aid, economic aid and U.S. influence
with the IMF and other international lenders — to persuade Morsi to compromise
with secular politicians and civil-society leaders on political and human
rights issues to rebuild security and get the economy on track.
