Friedman:
WHAT’S
the right strategy for dealing with a world increasingly divided between zones
of order and disorder? For starters, you’d better understand the forces of
disorder, like Boko Haram or the Islamic State. These are gangs of young men who
are telling us in every way possible that our rules no longer apply. Reason
cannot touch them, because rationalism never drove them. Their barbarism comes
from a dark place, where radical Islam gives a sense of community to
humiliated, drifting young men, who have never held a job or a girl’s hand.
That’s a toxic mix.
It’s
why Orit Perlov, an Israeli expert on Arab social networks, keeps telling me
that since I can’t visit the Islamic State, which is known as ISIS, and
interview its leaders, the next best thing would be to see “Batman: The Dark
Knight.” In particular, she drew my attention to this dialogue between Bruce
Wayne and Alfred Pennyworth:
Bruce Wayne: “I
knew the mob wouldn’t go down without a fight, but this is different. They
crossed the line.”
Alfred Pennyworth: “You
crossed the line first, sir. You squeezed them. You hammered them to the point
of desperation. And, in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn’t
fully understand.”
Bruce Wayne:
“Criminals aren’t complicated, Alfred. Just have to figure out what he’s
after.”
Alfred Pennyworth: “With
respect, Master Wayne, perhaps this is a man that you don’t fully understand,
either. A long time ago, I was in Burma. My friends and I were working for the
local government. They were trying to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders by
bribing them with precious stones. But their caravans were being raided in a
forest north of Rangoon by a bandit. So we went looking for the stones. But, in
six months, we never met anybody who traded with him. One day, I saw a child
playing with a ruby the size of a tangerine. The bandit had been throwing them
away.”
Bruce Wayne: “So
why steal them?”
Alfred Pennyworth: “Well,
because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren’t looking for
anything logical, like money. They can’t be bought, bullied, reasoned, or
negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn. ...”
Bruce Wayne: “The
bandit, in the forest in Burma, did you catch him?”
Alfred Pennyworth: “Yes.”
Bruce Wayne: “How?”
Alfred Pennyworth: “We
burned the forest down.”
We
can’t just burn down Syria or Iraq or Nigeria. But there is a strategy for
dealing with the world of disorder that I’d summarize with this progression:
Where
there is disorder — think Libya, Iraq, Syria, Mali, Chad, Somalia — collaborate
with every source of local, regional and international order to contain the
virus until the barbarism burns itself out. These groups can’t govern, so
ultimately locals will seek alternatives.
Where
there is top-down order — think Egypt or Saudi Arabia — try to make it more
decent and inclusive.
Where
there is order plus decency — think Jordan, Morocco, Kurdistan, the United Arab
Emirates — try to make it more consensual and effective, again to make it more
sustainable.
Where
there is order plus democracy — think Tunisia — do all you can to preserve and
strengthen it with financial and security assistance, so it can become a model
for emulation by the states and peoples around it.
And be
humble. We don’t have the wisdom, resources or staying power to do anything
more than contain these organisms, until the natural antibodies from within
emerge.
In the
Arab world, it may take longer for those natural antibodies to coalesce, and
that is worrying, argues Francis Fukuyama, the Stanford political scientist
whose new, widely discussed book, Political Order and Political Decay, is a
historical study of how decent states emerge. What they all have in common is a
strong and effective state bureaucracy that can deliver governance, the rule of
law and regular rotations in power.
Because
our founding fathers were escaping from tyranny, they were focused “on how
power can be constrained,” Fukuyama explained to me in an interview. “But
before power can be constrained, it has to be produced. ... Government is not
just about constraints. It’s about providing security, infrastructure, health
and rule of law. And anyone who can deliver all of that” — including China —
“wins the game whether they are democratic or not. ... ISIS got so big because
of the failure of governance in Syria and Iraq to deliver the most basic
services. ISIS is not strong. Everything around it was just so weak,” riddled
with corruption and sectarianism.
There
is so much state failure in the Arab world, argues Fukuyama, because of the
persistence there of kinship/tribal loyalties — “meaning that you can only
trust that narrow group of people in your tribe.” You can’t build a strong,
impersonal, merit-based state when the only ties that bind are shared kin, not
shared values. It took China and Europe centuries to make that transition, but
they did. If the Arab world can’t overcome its tribalism and sectarianism in the
face of ISIS barbarism, “then there is nothing we can do,” said Fukuyama. And
theirs will be a future of many dark nights.
