Douthat:
THERE are many lessons that conservatives need to learn from the rise of Donald Trump. There are elements of his message that the party should embrace. There are grievances among his voters that the Republican Party must address.
But for
conservatives to support Trump himself, to assist in his election as president
of the United States, would be a terrible mistake.
It
would be a particularly stark mistake for conservatives who feel that the basic
Reaganite vision that’s dominated their party for decades — a fusion of social
conservatism, free-market economics, and a hawkish internationalism — still
gets things mostly right.
In
large ways and small, Trump has consistently arrayed himself against this
vision. True, he paid lip service to certain Reaganite ideas during the
primaries — claiming to be pro-life, promising a supply-side tax cut, pledging
to appoint conservative judges. But the core of his message was protectionist
and nativist, comfortable with an expansive welfare state, bored with religious
conservatism, and dismissive of the commitments that constitute the post-Cold
War Pax Americana. And Trump’s policy forays since clinching the nomination
have only confirmed his post-Reagan orientation.
Reaganite
conservatives who help elevate Trump to the presidency, then, would be sleepwalking
toward a kind of ideological suicide. Successful party leaders often transform
parties in their image. William Jennings Bryan and Woodrow Wilson between them
turned a conservative Democratic Party progressive. Dwight Eisenhower all but
extinguished G.O.P. isolationism. Reagan himself set liberal Republicanism on
the path to extinction.
A
successful President Trump (and to support him is to hope for such a thing)
could easily do the same to Reaganism. In a fully-Trumpized G.O.P., Reagan’s
ideological coalition would crack up, with hawks drifting toward the Democrats,
supply-siders fading into crankery, religious conservatives entering
semi-permanent exile. And in its place a Trumpized Republican intelligentsia
would arise, with as little interest in Reaganism as today’s conservatives have
in the ideas of Nelson Rockefeller or Jacob Javits.
The
things conservatives are telling themselves to justify supporting him — at least he might appoint good judges —
miss this long-term point. The Reagan coalition might — might! — get an
acceptable Supreme Court appointment out of the Trump presidency. But that
could easily be the last thing it ever got.
But
what if you’re a conservative who isn’t a Reaganite, or you believe that
Reaganite ideas have long passed their sell-by dates? What if you agree with
Trump about the folly of the Iraq War, the perils of open immigration policies,
or the need for a different right-wing economic agenda? What if you think his
populism might bring about some necessary creative destruction to a
backward-looking G.O.P.?
Then
supporting Trump for president could make ideological sense, and the crackup
I’ve just described might seem like an advertisement for doing so.
But
there still remains the problem of Trump himself. Even if you find things to
appreciate in Trumpism — as I have, and still do — the man who has raised those issues is still unfit
for an office as awesomely powerful as the presidency of the United States.
His
unfitness starts with basic issues of temperament. It encompasses the
race-baiting, the conspiracy theorizing, the flirtations with violence, and the
pathological lying that have been his campaign-trail stock in trade.
But
above all it is Trump’s authoritarianism that makes him unfit for the
presidency — his stated admiration for Putin and the Chinese Politburo, his promise to use the
power of the presidency against private enterprises, the casual threats he and his surrogates toss off
against party donors, military officers, the press, the speaker of the House, and more.
All
presidents are tempted by the powers of the office, and congressional
abdication has only increased that temptation’s pull. President Obama’s power grabs are part of a bipartisan pattern of Caesarism, one that
will likely continue apace under Hillary Clinton.
But far
more than Obama or Hillary or George W. Bush, Trump is actively campaigning as
a Caesarist, making his contempt for constitutional norms and political
niceties a selling point. And given his mix of proud ignorance and immense
self-regard, there is no reason to believe that any of this is just an act.
Trump
would not be an American Mussolini; even our sclerotic institutions would
resist him more effectively than that. But he could test them as no modern
president has tested them before — and with them, the health of our economy, the civil peace of our society and the stability of
an increasingly perilous world.
In sum:
It would be possible to justify support for Trump if he merely promised a
period of chaos for conservatism. But to support Trump for the presidency is to
invite chaos upon the republic and the world. No policy goal, no court
appointment, can justify such recklessness.
To
Trumpism’s appeal, to Trump’s constituents, conservatives should listen and
answer “yes,” or “maybe,” or “not that, but how about…”
But to
Trump himself, there is no patriotic answer except “no.”
