Mead:
The whole world has its gaze fixed on Paris these days—and rightly so, given both the horrific nature of the attacks and the reverberations the massacre has already sent through European and American political discourse. The shock is still fresh. The wounded are still in the hospitals; the dead have not yet gone to their rest. The politicians are making speeches, and President Hollande has declared that France is at war, but it is already painfully clear that nothing France or its allies can or will do in response will end the threat of Paris-type attacks.
Regardless
of what kind of response the West ultimately launches, military efforts in the
wake of Paris will not spell an end to terrorism. There is no chance for a cure
for the causes of terrorism anytime soon, no matter how much Paris may have
stiffened Europe’s resolve. Across the Middle East, democracy isn’t taking
hold, economic development is further away than ever, and bad governance is
still endemic. This “civilizational wound” isn’t going to be cured, and the
sense of backwardness, bitterness, alienation it creates isn’t going to get
better. The Arab world as a whole is no closer today to, say, an East
Asian-style development miracle than it was in 1950 and neither the West nor
anybody else has the slightest idea how to change that.
Meanwhile,
in the West, Muslim populations in Europe will be economically underprivileged
for a very long time. They’ll be facing a future with few jobs, bad schools,
and popular prejudice running against them. This will increase the
radicalization that we are already seeing in places like Belgium.
We have
had “never again” moments before in COFKATGWOT (the Conflict Formerly Known as
the Global War on Terror). There were the attacks in Mumbai and in London.
There was the Madrid train bombing. And, of course, there was 9/11 itself. We
have used bombs and ground troops. We have engaged in efforts to build bridges
to the Islamic world. We have collaborated with “moderate Islamists.” We have
promoted democracy, both by the former President George W. Bush method in Iraq
and the President Barack Obama method in Egypt. We removed despots in Libya and
Iraq; we have supported strong men in Egypt and Turkey. None of it has made the
jihad go away.
Nothing
we do after Paris is going to make it go away, either. We can kill Osama bin
Laden. We can (and we should) crush ISIS. But we can’t change the reality that
jihadi ideology is alive and well, feeding off the discontent and
disempowerment felt so widely in the Islamic world. We can strengthen our
security at home, we can continue to improve intelligence collection and to
disrupt the ability of terrorists to communicate, to travel, and to raise and
move money. None of these measures can ever be completely successful, and new
jihadi movements will likely spring up to replace the ones we defeat. But we
cannot relax our vigilance. The price of failure is too high.
To
survive and to thrive, the West will have to become more like Israel: guarding
ourselves constantly against a threat that can’t be eliminated. The terrorists
will continually try to develop new tactics to get around our security
measures, and our security forces will have to find countermeasures against new
and shifting terror attacks. Life in the West will be marked by periodic
episodes of violence, which will be followed by security increases—but life
will still go on.
Grave
dangers remain. The terrorists are still on the hunt for WMD. Chemical weapons
are being used in Syria; the jihad knows no scruples when it comes to their
use. The dirty bomb, the chemical attack, the poisoning of reservoirs: These
dangers grow over time.
But for
now, Paris simply reminds us that, like the Israelis, we live in a dangerous
world. The peace and security of the western world, our ability to enjoy the
amusements and the diversions of the greatest and most beautiful cities the
world has ever known, all depend on the vigilance of our security forces and
the competence of their leaders.
The
French and their allies have every right, and even have a duty, to strike ISIS
as hard as they can. The hopes and the prayers of the civilized world will go
with the pilots and fighters as they bring retribution to the authors of evil.
But we cannot be naive. The war against terror has a long way to go, and we
must brace for more horrors like the ones so recently visited on the City of
Light.
