It’s About the Settlements, Stupid. By David P. Goldman. PJ Media, December 17, 2013. Also at Middle East Forum.
Goldman:
Jewish
settlements in Judea and Samaria, the misnamed occupied territories, are not
the obstacle to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. They are the acid test
of peace. To argue that peace is conceivable unless the bulk of the settlements
remain in place constitutes stupidity or hypocrisy. Leave aside the issue of
whether Jews have the right to live in the historic homeland of the Jewish
people. Ignore the fact that the settlers live overwhelmingly on what was waste
land and turned into gardens, vineyards, and industries which have uplifted the
lives of Palestinian Arabs more than all the aid that has passed through (or
rather stuck to) the fingers of the kleptocrats of the PA. Leave aside also
Israel’s requirement for defensible borders: that is a critical issue but not
identical to the continued presence of settlements.
Accepting
the settlements is the sine qua non of any viable peace agreement. It does
Israel no good to defend Israel’s right to exist but to condemn the settlers,
as does Alan Dershowitz, not to mention the leaders of liberal Jewish
denominations.
I
believe in land for peace. That is a tautology: In territorial disputes the two
main variables always are land and peace. But that implies more land for more
peace and less land for less peace. The Palestinian Arabs had an opportunity to
accept an Israeli state on just 5,500 square miles of land in 1947, and refused
to do so. The armistice lines of 1948 left Israel with 8,550 square miles, and
the Arab side refused to accept that. In 1967 Israel took an additional 5,628
square miles of land in dispute under international law; Jordan does not claim
it, and no legal Arab authority exists to claim it. It is not “illegally
occupied.” It has never been adjudicated by a competent authority.
To demand
the 1948 armistice lines (the so-called 1967 borders) is to refuse any penalty
for refusing to make peace in the past. That is the same as refusing any peace
at all. Wars end when one side accepts defeat, and abandons the hope of
restoring the status quo ante by force of arms. 1947 was a catastrophe
(“Nakba”) for the Palestinian Arabs, to be sure, but it was a catastrophe of
their own making; until they accept at least some degree of responsibility for
the catastrophe, they will not be reconciled to any peace agreement. That is
precisely what Palestine’s negotiator Saeb Erekat meant when he eschewed any
recognition of Israel as a Jewish nation-state because “I cannot change my
narrative.” The “narrative” is that the Jews are an alien intrusion into the Muslim
Middle East and eventually must be eliminated by one means or another.
The
Palestinian Arabs are a people in decline, and the vehemence of their leaders
reflects the dimness of their future. It is noteworthy that Secretary of State
John Kerry continues to talk of a “demographic time bomb” threatening Israel,
even though the data show that the Jewish population between the Jordan River
and the Mediterranean Sea is increasing faster than the Arab population, as
former Israeli diplomat Yoram Ettinger observes. That’s based on undisputed
data; in fact, Palestinian population data are inflated by an enormous margin,
as a 2006 study by the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University demonstrated:
[The
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics] projected that the number of births in
the Territories would total almost 908,000 for the seven-year period from 1997
to 2003. Yet, the actual number of births documented by the PA Ministry of
Health for the same period was significantly lower at 699,000, or 238,000 fewer
births than had been forecast by the PCBS. . . . The size of the discrepancy
accelerated over time. Whereas the PCBS predicted there would be over 143,000
births in 2003, the PA Ministry of Health reported only 102,000 births, which
pointed to a PCBS forecast 40% beyond actual results.
The
hold of traditional Muslim society on young Palestinian Arabs, especially young
women, is deteriorating: as they gain access to secondary and tertiary
education, young Arabs have fewer children and more careers. And the most
effective agency for the emancipation of young Arab women is the settler
movement. Ariel University across the so-called Green Line is full of young
Muslim women in headscarves studying computer science, and the leaders of the
Ariel community–Haredi Jews–work with local Arab leaders to recruit talented
students.
There
is a parallel to what I called the “peace of the aging” in Ireland. The Irish
got older. The drunken IRA killers I met in Belfast in 1970 as a student
journalist had no intention of making peace. They were having too much fun at
war. By 1996, when former Sen. George Mitchell presided over the Good Friday
Agreement that formally ended the low-intensity civil war in Northern Ireland,
those who were left had families and mortgages.
Distribution of Irish Population by Age
(UN)
By 2040
the Palestinian Arab population will have far fewer young people and far more
middle-aged people.
Distribution of West Bank Arab Population
by Age (UN)
The
Irish no longer care. They are neither Catholic nor nationalistic. The IRA
thugs of 1970 came from four-child families. Today the Irish have fewer than
two children on average. Let the matter simmer for another twenty years, and
the Palestinian Arabs will look more like the Irish of 1996 than the Irish of 1970.
At that point, the “narrative” will change, because no one will care about the
old “narrative.”
In the
meantime the Israeli settlers have built a garden and a workshop where before
there were bare rocks, and thriving communities that are integral parts of
Israeli society. It takes longer to get crosstown in Manhattan in traffic than
it does to drive from the center of Tel Aviv to Ariel, the largest town in
Samaria. This is yet another accomplishment of Jewish ingenuity and
industriousness, and it is (or should be) an inspiring example to all who hope
for a better life for the peoples of the Middle East. We will know that the
Palestinians want peace when they admire rather than abhor this effort.
The
utopian delusions of the Obama administration, the hypocrisy of the world, and
the betrayal–yes, I think that is the right word–of Israeli interests by the
liberal American Jewish denominations have put Israel in a painful situation.
The threat of economic sanctions from Europe or reduced American military
support if Israel refuses to swallow the poisoned bait are not a trivial
threat. As Caroline Glick writes today:
With
Kerry poised to shove his lethal parameters down our throats, parameters that
will require Israel to irrevocably accept terms of peace that will destroy the
country, it is obvious that Netanyahu needs to adopt a longer-term strategy.
Our goal cannot be limited to waiting out Obama. Our goal must be to extricate
Israel from the two-state trap.
Yes,
Israel will pay a huge price for jumping ship. For 20 years, non-leftist
Israeli leaders have been trying to go along to get along with the Left, and
the Americans and their ever-escalating demands. But Kerry’s obsessive harping,
and his insistence on pushing forward with his disastrous framework deal forces
our hand.
Either
we pay a huge price now, or accept our destruction within five to 15 years.
Ms.
Glick is Israeli, and has a right to urge a particular course of action for her
country. I am American, and direct my comments instead to my liberal Jewish
co-religionists: Your support for the Obama administration and your betrayal of
Jews on our front line in Judea and Samaria is a wicked and disgraceful thing.
We must summon all of our strength to prevent this administration from
punishing Israel for refusing to commit suicide.
As a
religious Jew, I believe that Jews are obligated to settle our historic
homeland, but I also believe that the preservation of Jewish life takes
precedence. If it were possible to achieve a durable and robust peace by
abandoning the settlements I would support it. But that is a delusion: we will
make ourselves immeasurably less secure by abandoning the settlements than by
holding fast to them.