A woman smiles after getting an autograph by Donald Trump on her hat at a campaign rally in Las Vegas, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/David Becker. |
The Jacksonian Revolt: American Populism and the Liberal Order. By Walter Russell Mead. Foreign Affairs, January 20, 2017.
Mead:
For the first time in 70 years, the American people have elected a president who disparages the policies, ideas, and institutions at the heart of postwar U.S. foreign policy. No one knows how the foreign policy of the Trump administration will take shape, or how the new president’s priorities and preferences will shift as he encounters the torrent of events and crises ahead. But not since Franklin Roosevelt’s administration has U.S. foreign policy witnessed debates this fundamental.
Since World War II, U.S. grand strategy has been shaped by two major schools of
thought, both focused on achieving a stable international system with the
United States at the center. Hamiltonians believed that it was in the American
interest for the United States to replace the United Kingdom as “the gyroscope
of world order,” in the words of President Woodrow Wilson’s adviser Edward House during World War I, putting the financial and security architecture
in place for a reviving global economy after World War II—something that would
both contain the Soviet Union and advance U.S. interests. When the Soviet Union
fell, Hamiltonians responded by doubling down on the creation of a global
liberal order, understood primarily in economic terms.
Wilsonians,
meanwhile, also believed that the creation of a global liberal order was a vital
U.S. interest, but they conceived of it in terms of values rather than
economics. Seeing corrupt and authoritarian regimes abroad as a leading cause
of conflict and violence, Wilsonians sought peace through the promotion of
human rights, democratic governance, and the rule of law. In the later stages
of the Cold War, one branch of this camp, liberal institutionalists, focused on
the promotion of international institutions and ever-closer global integration,
while another branch, neoconservatives, believed that a liberal agenda could
best be advanced through Washington’s unilateral efforts (or in voluntary
conjunction with like-minded partners).
The
disputes between and among these factions were intense and consequential, but
they took place within a common commitment to a common project of global order.
As that project came under increasing strain in recent decades, however, the
unquestioned grip of the globalists on U.S. foreign policy thinking began to
loosen. More nationalist, less globally minded voices began to be heard, and a
public increasingly disenchanted with what it saw as the costly failures the
global order-building project began to challenge what the foreign policy
establishment was preaching. The Jeffersonian and Jacksonian schools of thought,
prominent before World War II but out of favor during the heyday of the liberal
order, have come back with a vengeance.
Jeffersonians,
including today’s so-called realists, argue that reducing the United States’
global profile would reduce the costs and risks of foreign policy. They seek to
define U.S. interests narrowly and advance them in the safest and most
economical ways. Libertarians take this proposition to its limits and find
allies among many on the left who oppose interventionism, want to cut military
spending, and favor redeploying the government’s efforts and resources at home.
Both Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas seemed to
think that they could surf the rising tide of Jeffersonian thinking during the
Republican presidential primary. But Donald Trump sensed something that his
political rivals failed to grasp: that the truly surging force in American
politics wasn’t Jeffersonian minimalism. It was Jacksonian populist
nationalism.
IDENTITY
POLITICS BITE BACK
The
distinctively American populism Trump espouses is rooted in the thought and
culture of the country’s first populist president, Andrew Jackson. For
Jacksonians—who formed the core of Trump’s passionately supportive base—the
United States is not a political entity created and defined by a set of
intellectual propositions rooted in the Enlightenment and oriented toward the
fulfillment of a universal mission. Rather, it is the nation-state of the
American people, and its chief business lies at home. Jacksonians see American
exceptionalism not as a function of the universal appeal of American ideas, or
even as a function of a unique American vocation to transform the world, but
rather as rooted in the country’s singular commitment to the equality and
dignity of individual American citizens. The role of the U.S. government,
Jacksonians believe, is to fulfill the country’s destiny by looking after the
physical security and economic well-being of the American people in their
national home—and to do that while interfering as little as possible with the
individual freedom that makes the country unique.
Jacksonian
populism is only intermittently concerned with foreign policy, and indeed it is
only intermittently engaged with politics more generally. It took a particular
combination of forces and trends to mobilize it this election cycle, and most
of those were domestically focused. In seeking to explain the Jacksonian surge,
commentators have looked to factors such as wage stagnation, the loss of good
jobs for unskilled workers, the hollowing out of civic life, a rise in drug
use—conditions many associate with life in blighted inner cities that have
spread across much of the country. But this is a partial and incomplete view.
Identity and culture have historically played a major role in American
politics, and 2016 was no exception. Jacksonian America felt itself to be under
siege, with its values under attack and its future under threat. Trump—flawed
as many Jacksonians themselves believed him to be—seemed the only candidate
willing to help fight for its survival.
For
Jacksonian America, certain events galvanize intense interest and political engagement,
however brief. One of these is war; when an enemy attacks, Jacksonians spring
to the country’s defense. The most powerful driver of Jacksonian political
engagement in domestic politics, similarly, is the perception that Jacksonians
are being attacked by internal enemies, such as an elite cabal or immigrants
from different backgrounds. Jacksonians worry about the U.S. government being
taken over by malevolent forces bent on transforming the United States’
essential character. They are not obsessed with corruption, seeing it as an
ineradicable part of politics. But they care deeply about what they see as
perversion—when politicians try to use the government to oppress the people
rather than protect them. And that is what many Jacksonians came to feel was
happening in recent years, with powerful forces in the American elite,
including the political establishments of both major parties, in cahoots
against them.
Many
Jacksonians came to believe that the American establishment was no longer
reliably patriotic, with “patriotism” defined as an instinctive loyalty to the
well-being and values of Jacksonian America. And they were not wholly wrong, by
their lights. Many Americans with cosmopolitan sympathies see their main
ethical imperative as working for the betterment of humanity in general.
Jacksonians locate their moral community closer to home, in fellow citizens who
share a common national bond. If the cosmopolitans see Jacksonians as backward
and chauvinistic, Jacksonians return the favor by seeing the cosmopolitan elite
as near treasonous—people who think it is morally questionable to put their own
country, and its citizens, first.
Jacksonian
distrust of elite patriotism has been increased by the country’s selective
embrace of identity politics in recent decades. The contemporary American scene
is filled with civic, political, and academic movements celebrating various
ethnic, racial, gender, and religious identities. Elites have gradually
welcomed demands for cultural recognition by African Americans, Hispanics,
women, the lgbtq community, Native Americans, Muslim Americans. Yet the
situation is more complex for most Jacksonians, who don’t see themselves as
fitting neatly into any of those categories.
Whites
who organize around their specific European ethnic roots can do so with little
pushback; Italian Americans and Irish Americans, for example, have long and
storied traditions in the parade of American identity groups. But increasingly,
those older ethnic identities have faded, and there are taboos against claiming
a generic European American or white identity. Many white Americans thus find
themselves in a society that talks constantly about the importance of identity,
that values ethnic authenticity, that offers economic benefits and social advantages
based on identity—for everybody but them. For Americans of mixed European
background or for the millions who think of themselves simply as American,
there are few acceptable ways to celebrate or even connect with one’s heritage.
There
are many reasons for this, rooted in a complex process of intellectual
reflection over U.S. history, but the reasons don’t necessarily make intuitive
sense to unemployed former factory workers and their families. The growing
resistance among many white voters to what they call “political correctness”
and a growing willingness to articulate their own sense of group identity can
sometimes reflect racism, but they need not always do so. People constantly
told that they are racist for thinking in positive terms about what they see as
their identity, however, may decide that racist is what they are, and that they
might as well make the best of it. The rise of the so-called alt-right is at
least partly rooted in this dynamic.
The
emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement and the scattered, sometimes
violent expressions of anti-police sentiment displayed in recent years
compounded the Jacksonians’ sense of cultural alienation, and again, not simply
because of race. Jacksonians instinctively support the police, just as they instinctively
support the military. Those on the frontlines protecting society sometimes make
mistakes, in this view, but mistakes are inevitable in the heat of combat, or
in the face of crime. It is unfair and even immoral, many Jacksonians believe,
to ask soldiers or police officers to put their lives on the line and face
great risks and stress, only to have their choices second-guessed by armchair
critics. Protests that many Americans saw as a quest for justice, therefore,
often struck Jacksonians as attacks on law enforcement and public order.
Gun
control and immigration were two other issues that crystallized the perception
among many voters that the political establishments of both parties had grown
hostile to core national values. Non-Jacksonians often find it difficult to
grasp the depth of the feelings these issues stir up and how proposals for gun
control and immigration reform reinforce suspicions about elite control and
cosmopolitanism.
The
right to bear arms plays a unique and hallowed role in Jacksonian political
culture, and many Jacksonians consider the Second Amendment to be the most
important in the Constitution. These Americans see the right of revolution,
enshrined in the Declaration of Independence, as the last resort of a free
people to defend themselves against tyranny—and see that right as unenforceable
without the possibility of bearing arms. They regard a family’s right to
protect itself without reliance on the state, meanwhile, as not just a
hypothetical ideal but a potential practical necessity—and something that
elites don’t care about or even actively oppose. (Jacksonians have become
increasingly concerned that Democrats and centrist Republicans will try to
disarm them, which is one reason why mass shootings and subsequent calls for
gun control spur spikes in gun sales, even as crime more generally has fallen.)
As for
immigration, here, too, most non-Jacksonians misread the source and nature of
Jacksonian concern. There has been much discussion about the impact of
immigration on the wages of low-skilled workers and some talk about xenophobia
and Islamophobia. But Jacksonians in 2016 saw immigration as part of a
deliberate and conscious attempt to marginalize them in their own country.
Hopeful talk among Democrats about an “emerging Democratic majority” based on a
secular decline in the percentage of the voting population that is white was
heard in Jacksonian America as support for a deliberate transformation of
American demographics. When Jacksonians hear elites’ strong support for high
levels of immigration and their seeming lack of concern about illegal
immigration, they do not immediately think of their pocketbooks. They see an
elite out to banish them from power—politically, culturally, demographically.
The recent spate of dramatic random terrorist attacks, finally, fused the
immigration and personal security issues into a single toxic whole.
In
short, in November, many Americans voted their lack of confidence—not in a
particular party but in the governing classes more generally and their
associated global cosmopolitan ideology. Many Trump voters were less concerned
with pushing a specific program than with stopping what appeared to be the
inexorable movement of their country toward catastrophe.
THE
ROAD AHEAD
What
all of this means for U.S. foreign policy remains to be seen. Many previous
presidents have had to revise their ideas substantially after reaching the Oval
Office; Trump may be no exception. Nor is it clear just what the results would
be of trying to put his unorthodox policies into practice. (Jacksonians can
become disappointed with failure and turn away from even former heroes they
once embraced; this happened to President George W. Bush, and it could happen
to Trump, too.)
At the
moment, Jacksonians are skeptical about the United States’ policy of global
engagement and liberal order building—but more from a lack of trust in the people
shaping foreign policy than from a desire for a specific alternative vision.
They oppose recent trade agreements not because they understand the details and
consequences of those extremely complex agreements’ terms but because they have
come to believe that the negotiators of those agreements did not necessarily
have the United States’ interests at heart. Most Jacksonians are not foreign
policy experts and do not ever expect to become experts. For them, leadership
is necessarily a matter of trust. If they believe in a leader or a political
movement, they are prepared to accept policies that seem counter-intuitive and
difficult.
They no
longer have such trust in the American establishment, and unless and until it
can be restored, they will keep Washington on a short leash. To paraphrase what
the neoconservative intellectual Irving Kristol wrote about Senator Joseph
McCarthy in 1952, there is one thing that Jacksonians know about Trump—that he
is unequivocally on their side. About their country’s elites, they feel they
know no such thing. And their concerns are not all illegitimate, for the United
States’ global order-building project is hardly flourishing.
Over
the past quarter century, Western policymakers became infatuated with some
dangerously oversimplified ideas. They believed capitalism had been tamed and
would no longer generate economic, social, or political upheavals. They felt
that illiberal ideologies and political emotions had been left in the
historical dustbin and were believed only by “bitter” losers—people who “cling
to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them . . . as a
way to explain their frustrations,” as Barack Obama famously put it
in 2008. Time and the normal processes of history would solve the problem;
constructing a liberal world order was simply a matter of working out the
details.
Given
such views, many recent developments—from the 9/11 attacks and the war on
terrorism to the financial crisis to the recent surge of angry nationalist
populism on both sides of the Atlantic—came as a rude surprise. It is
increasingly clear that globalization and automation have helped break up the
socioeconomic model that undergirded postwar prosperity and domestic social
peace, and that the next stage of capitalist development will challenge the
very foundations of both the global liberal order and many of its national
pillars.
In this
new world disorder, the power of identity politics can no longer be denied.
Western elites believed that in the twenty-first century, cosmopolitanism and
globalism would triumph over atavism and tribal loyalties. They failed to
understand the deep roots of identity politics in the human psyche and the
necessity for those roots to find political expression in both foreign and
domestic policy arenas. And they failed to understand that the very forces of
economic and social development that cosmopolitanism and globalization fostered
would generate turbulence and eventually resistance, as Gemeinschaft (community) fought back against the onrushing Gesellschaft (market society), in the
classic terms sociologists favored a century ago.
The
challenge for international politics in the days ahead is therefore less to
complete the task of liberal world order building along conventional lines than
to find a way to stop the liberal order’s erosion and reground the global
system on a more sustainable basis. International order needs to rest not just
on elite consensus and balances of power and policy but also on the free
choices of national communities—communities that need to feel protected from
the outside world as much as they want to benefit from engaging with it.