Two-State Illusion. By Ian S. Lustick. NJBR, September 15, 2013.
Kramer:
As both Jonathan Tobin and Jonathan Marks have previously written here, University of Pennsylvania political scientist Ian Lustick, author of a recent op-ed promoting the “one-state solution” and featured prominently in the New York Times, isn’t an outlier. To the contrary, American academe is full of Lusticks: 60-something Jewish radicals who went through some transient phase of simplistic far-left Zionism before discovering that the real Israel is complex. Disillusioned, they rode their leftism to minor eminence as repentants in departments and centers of Middle Eastern studies, where Jewish critics of Israel provide ideal cover for the real haters. Such Jews used to be devotees of a Palestinian state, but now they’re scrambling to keep up with the freakish fad of a “one-state solution” set off by the late Edward Said’s own famous conversion (announced, of course, on the pages of the New York Times, in 1999). Because Lustick’s piece ran in the Times, it was a big deal for some American Jews who still see that newspaper as a gatekeeper of ideas. In Israel, it’s passed virtually unnoticed.
I like to think of it as a kind of gambler throwing dice, except it’s history that’s throwing the dice. Every throw of the dice is like a diplomatic peace process attempt. In order to actually succeed, history has got to throw snake eyes, 2. And, you know, that’s not easy, you have to keep throwing the dice. Eventually, you’re going to throw a 2. All of the leadership questions and accidents of history, the passions of both sides, the torturous feelings of suffering, the political coalitions, the timing of elections will fall into place.
What is
Lustick saying here? Remember that the odds of throwing snake eyes on any given
toss of the dice are 36 to 1, so only a fool or an idiot would despair after,
say, a dozen or even two dozen throws. Even failure is just a prelude to
success, since as long as you keep throwing, “eventually, you’re going to throw
a 2.” The old sawhorse that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and
expecting a different result is belied by the dice-thrower, who repeats the
same action knowing that each result will be different. And that’s why the
United States keeps repeating the diplomatic moves that Lustick now finds so
tiresome. The “peace processors” are just adhering to his logic, circa 2002,
which guarantees that one of these initiatives is destined to succeed—provided
there are enough of them.
But you can’t roll a 13, which is to say that the right has no plan for how it can successfully keep the territories anymore. They don’t even advocate as a realistic option expelling the Palestinians. So they have no plan. So if you are the right and you know you have to roll a 13, the strategy is, don’t let the dice get rolled, keep trying to stop every initiative and subvert it if it gets started. . . . It’s the only rational thing to do in order to prevent history from eventually producing what it will produce, which is a two-state solution.
So the
Israeli version of a one-state solution—an Israel from the river Jordan to the
Mediterranean—was the hopeless cause of dead-enders who defied “history”
itself. In 2002, Lustick was certain that “one of these days,” Israel would
leave the West Bank:
Israel is caught between the inability to make the issue disappear by making the West Bank look like Israel, and the inability to make it disappear by actually withdrawing, by getting through that regime barrier, that regime threshold. Some day, one of these days, that regime threshold is going to be crossed.
The
Palestinian version of the one-state option? Lustick didn’t even mention it in
2002.
History will solve the problem in the sense of the way entropy solves problems. You don’t stay with this kind of constrained volatility forever. When you constrain exchange rates in a volatile market by not allowing rates to move even though the actual economy makes them absurd, rates will eventually change, but in a very radical, non-linear way. The more the constraint, the less the adaptation to changing conditions, the more jagged and painful that adaptation is going to be.
Better,
thinks Lustick, that the “peace process” in pursuit of the two-state solution
be shut down now, so that both sides can slug it out again—this time to
“painful stalemates that lead each party to conclude that time is not on their
side.” Israel, which has defeated the Palestinians time and again, has to stop
winning. Pulling the plug on the “peace process,” he writes in the Times, would
set the stage for ruthless oppression, mass mobilization, riots, brutality, terror, Jewish and Arab emigration and rising tides of international condemnation of Israel. And faced with growing outrage, America will no longer be able to offer unconditional support for Israel. Once the illusion of a neat and palatable solution to the conflict disappears, Israeli leaders may then begin to see, as South Africa’s white leaders saw in the late 1980s, that their behavior is producing isolation, emigration and hopelessness.
And that’s where we want to be! Enough
rolling of the diplomatic dice! It’s time to roll the iron dice! It may sound
cynical to you, but Lustick thinks it’s destiny: “The question is not whether
the future has conflict in store for Israel-Palestine. It does. Nor is the
question whether conflict can be prevented. It cannot.” Remember, this is
someone who just a few years ago insisted that a two-state solution was
inevitable. Now he argues exactly the opposite. The world should get out of the
way and let the inescapable violence unfold—only this time, the United States
won’t be in Israel’s corner, and so Israel will be defeated and forced to
dismantle itself.
I argued in 1971 that 1,500 settlers in the West Bank were a catastrophe that would lead Israel into a political dungeon from which it might never escape. I was laughed at. I also argued for a Palestinian state alongside of Israel in the early 1970s, but it took twenty-five years before the mainstream in Israeli politics agreed with that. It may take another twenty-five years before they realize that what I’m saying is true now and will be even truer if Israel is still around in twenty or twenty-five more years.
This is
not a human measure of prescience, as Lustick himself has acknowledged. How far
in advance would anyone have been able to imagine the Iranian revolution or the
fall of the Soviet Union? Lustick: “Ten years? No. Five years? Maybe two, if
you were very, very good.” If, as Lustick claims, he consistently sees the
future of Israel twenty-five years forward, he must inhabit a sphere far above
the regular run of prognosticating political scientists. He is now compiling
the Book of Ian. Read it, O Israel (enter credit card here), and weep.


